Three major political prognosticators moved their ratings in favor of Republicans on Wednesday as Democratic candidates break with Biden’s border policies, yet more signs that Republicans are well-poised for victory ahead of the 2022 midterms.
Summary
Three major political prognosticators moved their ratings in favor of Republicans on Wednesday, yet more signs that Republicans are well-poised for victory ahead of the 2022 midterms.
- Politico unveiled their “Politico Forecast 2022,” where the political news site has rated every competitive race in 2022. Politico’s initial forecast sees the Senate as “Leans Republican” and the House as “Likely Republican.”
- Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a project of the University of Virginia, shifted ratings for 11 House seats towards Republicans.
- Crystal Ball now rates 210 seats as at least leaning Republican, 198 at least leaning Democratic, and 27 House seats as “Toss-ups.” Republicans need to win 5 seats to win the House majority.
- Cook Political Report moved eight House seats in Republicans’ direction. Three incumbent House Democrats – Reps. Susie Lee (NV-03), Steven Horsford (NV-04), and Abigail Spanberger (VA-07) are now in “toss-up” races for reelection.
- This news comes as more and more Democratic Senate candidates for open or GOP seats in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina break with the Biden Administration’s plan to end Title 42 pandemic-era border restrictions.
- Vulnerable Democratic Senators Raphael Warnock (GA), Catherine Cortez Masto (NV), Mark Kelly (AZ), Michael Bennet (CO), and Maggie Hassan (NH) have raised questions about Biden’s immigration moves and several have signed onto a bill to delay Title 42’s revocation.
- Politico interviewed Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA), who called ‘defund the police’ “a terrible idea” that is still hurting Democrats’ electoral chances and laid out her desire for a “policing reboot” for House Democrats.
- The New York Times reported on the trend of Democratic dollars flowing to “likely lost causes.” Democratic candidates with viral videos or running against liberals’ most hated Republicans pulled in millions – even while their chances of victory are remote, at best.
- CNN wrote (in an evergreen piece), “it’s been a very bad few days for Joe Biden.” The author noted the administration’s confusing response to a judge striking down the transportation mask mandate, Democratic dissension on Title 42, and Biden’s approval in CNN’s “poll of polls” sinking to a new low of 39 percent.
- Fox News covered the Democratic alarm over Biden’s plan to dump Title 42, including on-the-record quotes from numerous Democrats in competitive House and Senate races.
- National Review wrote, “Joe Biden blew it on masks” and tied that bungled policy to the other “headwinds” against Democrats ahead of the midterms. Biden has “allow[ed] himself to be co-oped by the silliest people in the country” and now “has guaranteed that there will be no escape from his predicament.”
- The Washington Examiner argued political handicappers’ shifts in favor of the GOP portend a red wave in November.
Author’s Take
As of this writing, virtually every sign points to a Democratic wipeout in November:
- Joe Biden’s average approval rating is a dismal 41 percent.
- Biden recently polled as low as 35 percent, suggesting he could decline even further.
- Inflation is at a 40-year high and may only get higher.
- Republicans over-performed in the 2021 elections, winning the governor’s race in Virginia and nearly winning New Jersey.
- Democrats themselves concede they’ll have to play defense: The top House Democratic super PAC is spending $102 million in 51 media markets across the country.
- House Democrats have named 32 members to their “Frontline” program for vulnerable members, and most of their “races to watch” are open seats left by the 29 House Democrats who’ve declined to seek reelection.
- Republicans, meanwhile, have expanded their offensive map to include 72 Democrat-held seats, including 33 seats where Biden won by 10 or more points.
- Democrats in swing states and districts – who’s political antennae are finely-tuned to their constituents’ concerns – are breaking with Biden’s policies on masking and immigration in droves.
While there is still time for Democrats to turn things around – or for Republicans to nominate disaster candidates that could cost them winnable seats – politicians and prognosticators alike are signaling they expect a red wave in November.
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© Dominic Moore, 2022
