Candidates in Final Sprint with Two Days to Go Before Midterm Elections

Candidates across the country are making their last burst of campaigning with just two days to go before the midterm elections.

Summary

Candidates across the country are in the final sprint with just two days to go before the midterm elections determine control of Congress and statehouses from coast to coast.

• Democrats hold slim majorities in both chambers of Congress. Republicans are favored to retake the House of Representatives after four years in the minority, while Senate control remains up for grabs as several key battleground races remain too close to call.
• Voters appear ready to punish Democrats for soaring inflation and crime rates, despite President Joe Biden’s warnings that a GOP victory could “undermine democracy.”
• President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump headlined rallies in New York and Florida, respectively, one day after both presidents and former President Barack Obama all converged on Pennsylvania for one last get-out-the-vote push.
• Tens of millions of Americans have already cast their ballots. As of Sunday morning, more than 39.2 million people submitted early votes, surpassing 2018’s record-setting 39.1 million early voters.
• Election results may not be known immediately. Some states, like Pennsylvania, don’t allow election officials to begin counting early or mail-in votes until Election Day, making it more likely the ballot-counting process extends into Wednesday or even later.
• “Blue mirage” states like Florida and North Carolina count Democratic-leaning early votes first, then Republican-leaning Election Day votes, creating the appearance of large Democratic leads in initial vote counts due to partisan differences in voting preferences. “Red mirage” states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin do the opposite and count Election Day ballots before mail ballots.
• The midterms could give Republicans a greater say in the national policy agenda and the power to investigate the Biden administration. The results could also influence the plans of the two parties’ 2024 frontrunners, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.

• Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst for The New York Times, pointed out the prevalence of polls from Republican-leaning polling firms has reduced the risk that polling averages will overestimate Democrats like they did in 2016 and 2020.
• The final Washington Post-ABC poll indicated “Republicans hold significant advantages on the bread-and-butter issues of the economy and inflation that are central concerns of this fall’s election, and are poised to claim a majority in the House in Tuesday’s election.”
• POLITICO chronicled how the decennial redistricting process shaped the battle for the House of Representatives. Republicans benefitted from red-state maps drawn to protect incumbents and from Democratic overreaches that resulted in court-drawn maps that have helped GOP chances.

• The Wall Street Journal covered the final burst of campaigning in the closing 48 hours of the midterms. Republicans and nonpartisan analysts expect a good night for the GOP as top politicians barnstorm battleground states from coast to coast.
• The Washington Examiner identified the key areas where the election will be won or lost. Their list included: metro Atlanta; south Texas; Orange County, California; and northern Virginia.
• National Review’s Dan McLaughlin tracked how the races for Senate appeared to be breaking with two days to go. Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Arizona remain Senate tossups, surprisingly joined at the last minute by New Hampshire. Keep an eye on the Granite State.

Return to Freespoke

© Dominic Moore, 2022