Pentagon Launches Inquiry into Leaked Intelligence Reports That Pose ‘Very Serious’ National Security Risk

The Pentagon and the Justice Department have launched an inquiry to find the person leaking intelligence reports on the war in Ukraine and other international hotspots. According to the Pentagon, the leaked documents pose a “very serious” risk to national security.

Summary

The Pentagon and the Justice Department have launched an inquiry to find the person leaking intelligence reports on the war in Ukraine and other international hotspots. According to the Pentagon, the leaked documents pose a “very serious” risk to national security.

• The documents, which are dated between Feb. 23 and Mar. 1, were posted on social media sites like Twitter and Discord and “are labeled secret and resemble routine updates that the U.S. military’s Joint Staff would produce daily …and provide what appears to be details on the progress of weapons and equipment going into Ukraine with more precise timelines and amounts than the U.S. generally provides publicly.”
• More than 100 images marked with “Top Secret” and other classification markings indicating their highly sensitive nature were posted on a Discord server for fans of Minecraft at the beginning of March.
• Discord is a smaller social media network primarily for gamers where users chat in “servers” or invitation-only chat rooms. Apparently, the leaked documents were initially posted to a small server where they stayed contained until early March when one user reposted them into a larger server and the files began to migrate.
• US officials believe the breadth of topics covered by the leaked documents suggests the leaker is an American rather than an ally.  “The focus now is on this being a U.S. leak, as many of the documents were only in U.S. hands,” a former senior Defense Department official told Reuters.
• The documents include U.S. assessments of Ukrainian forces ahead of their anticipated spring offensive and intelligence reports on U.S. allies. Some documents appear to have been digitally altered to show a more positive outlook for Russia in its war in Ukraine.
• In an assessment labeled “Top Secret,” the U.S. believes Ukraine’s planned spring offensive will far “well short” of its objectives, a far cry from the Biden administration’s public statements about the strength of Ukraine’s armed forces. Ukraine’s air defenses are on the ropes and could be exhausted within months if not reinforced.
• Other leaked documents revealed that the U.S. has penetrated deep into Russia’s security and intelligence services and the top levels of the Kremlin, allowing the U.S. military to provide Ukraine with real-time warnings and accurately assess Russian capabilities. In fact, the U.S. “has a clearer understanding of Russian military operations than it does of Ukrainian planning.”

• The Washington Post broke the news about a leaked document that appeared to show Egypt planned to secretly supply 40,000 rockets for Russia while keeping the US in the dark. President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi, nominally a US ally, seemingly planned to send ammunition to Russia to ensure wheat shipments continue to supply Egypt, which is the world’s largest wheat importer.
• The New York Times compared this breach to past document leaks. Compared to the secrets revealed by WikiLeaks and Edward Snowden, the Pentagon briefing documents are less comprehensive but are “far more timely.”
• Politico reported the US is in “crisis mode with allies” as government leaders in London, Brussels, Berlin, Dubai, and Kyiv are looking for answers about how this highly classified information could leak. Members of the Five Eyes intelligence sharing group have asked for briefings on the leaks but the Biden administration has been slow to respond.

• The New York Post assessed the six biggest revelations from the document leak. Their biggest takeaways included the Pentagon’s prediction that Ukraine’s air defenses are nearing exhaustion, that South Korea was wary of sending ammunition to Ukraine and claims that Mossad encourage protests against Benjamin Netanyahu’s judicial reform plan.
• The leaks may be just beginning, according to the White House’s national security spokesman. Per Fox News, John Kirby told reporters at a briefing on Monday that “We don’t know” who the leaker is or whether the threat is still ongoing.
• The Wall Street Journal reported that the South Korean government plans to investigate leaked documents concerning its country that appeared to show the US spying on its allies. Intelligence was leaked that speared to show concerns among South Korean officials over selling ammunition to help Ukraine.

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© Dominic Moore, 2023