Today is the Moment of Truth for Jim Jordan’s Quest for the Speakership

Later today, the House is set to vote for a new speaker two weeks after the shock ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Does Jim Jordan have the votes? Or is he doomed to failure like McCarthy and Majority Leader Steve Scalise before him?

Summary

Later today, the House is set to vote for a new speaker two weeks after the shock ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Does Jim Jordan have the votes? Or is he doomed to failure like McCarthy and Majority Leader Steve Scalise before him?

• Jordan was nominated by an underwhelming 124-81 vote against a protest candidate, a lukewarm endorsement by his conference – at best. 
• Friday’s secret ballot vote indicated 55 Republicans were opposed to Jordan’s speakership bid, but the number of holdouts has dwindled since then. Leading anti-Jordan voices like Reps. Ken Calvert (R-CA) and Ann Wagner (R-MO) announced they’d support him on Monday.
• Jordan needs the support of 217 House Republicans to secure the speakership, meaning he can only afford to lose four votes. 
• At time of publication, it’s unclear how many House Republicans remain opposed to Jordan. One member, Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) vowed to vote for McCarthy on the floor, and he is apparently not alone.
• Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-FL) also plans to vote for McCarthy, and Reps. Mike Kelly (R-PA) and Mario Diaz-Balart (R-FL) say they will vote for Scalise. Reps. Don Bacon (R-NE), Ken Buck (R-CO) and Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) all said they opposed but left themselves wiggle room to come around eventually if they so choose.
• Some plugged-in Republicans told Axios that should Jordan be forced to a second ballot, he could end up hemorrhaging the support he’s gained over the weekend from Republicans who never wanted him to be speaker in the first place.
• As Semafor reported, Jordan’s “deeply conservative politics — he’s a co-founder of the House Freedom Caucus and a dogged public defender of Donald Trump — have won him the devotion of the party’s often implacable right wing, as well as Trump’s endorsement. But they’re a concern for many party moderates. He also reportedly alienated a number of colleagues in his showdown with Scalise.”
• Should Jordan fail, the House’s lonely eyes may turn to Rep. Patrick McHenry, the acting speaker. Several Republicans and now some moderate Democrats support giving McHenry more powers to move legislation until Republicans select a permanent replacement for McCarthy. 

• Some Jordan confidants told the New York Times that the number of GOP holdouts is down to around 10 members. The biggest reason? “The downfalls of Mr. McCarthy and Mr. Scalise left many mainstream Republicans bitter that the will of a majority in their ranks had not been honored.”
• CNN reported Jordan was still short of the votes heading into a conference meeting on Monday. Reps. Don Bacon (R-NE), Mario Diaz-Balart (R-FL) and Ken Buck (R-CO) remain opposed to Jordan, and others would prefer to stick with McHenry.
• The Washington Post explored Jordan’s “remarkably thin legislative track record.” Somehow, Jordan has not had one single bill signed into law since entering Congress in 2007. One think tank, the Center for Effective Lawmaking, ranked Jordan one of the five least effective members of the House last year.

• The Wall Street Journal reported some of the reluctant Jordan backers are supporting him just so the interminable speaker mess comes to an end and not because they think he would be a good speaker. Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-FL) told the Journal he’s “deeply frustrated by the way this process has played out” but wants to work towards party unity.
• Fox News reported on a “major victory” for Jordan as he works to earn the 217 votes he needs to become speaker. Rep. Mike Rogers (R-AL), the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, announced he would be backing Jordan after previously being adamantly opposed after “cordial, thoughtful, and productive conversations.”
• National Review covered one potential pitfall for Jordan: the Ohio State wrestling sexual abuse scandal. Four wrestlers have accused Jordan of failing to protect them from predatory team doctor Richard Strauss and accused him and his spokesman of playing “word games” to avoid accountability. A lawyer for the former wrestlers plans to depose Jordan and force him to testify under oath.

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© Dominic Moore, 2023