Iowa voters are preparing to caucus in subzero temperatures tonight to kick off the Republican nominating process to select the party’s nominee to face President Joe Biden in the fall.
Summary
Iowa voters are preparing to caucus in subzero temperatures tonight to kick off the Republican nominating process to select the party’s nominee to face President Joe Biden in the fall.
- Former President Donald Trump holds a commanding lead over the Republican field according to recent polling and is expected to cruise to victory on Monday night.
- The final NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll found Trump in the lead with 48% support, which would be the highest margin of victory for any non-incumbent Republican presidential candidate in the history of the Iowa caucuses.
- Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley edged Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to take second place, but her 20% support was a near-statistical-tie with DeSantis’ 16% of the vote. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy trails far behind with 8% support.
- Iowa’s extremely low temperatures on Monday could lead to some surprising results should the cold keep candidates’ supporters from the polls.
- A strong second place finish for Haley could boost her campaign heading into New Hampshire, where polls show her within striking distance of Trump.
- If Haley finishes ahead of DeSantis, it will inflict a devastating blow on the Florida governor’s campaign. DeSantis has made Iowa central to his presidential hopes after traveling to all 99 counties and securing the endorsements of the Hawkeye State’s governor and GOP leadership.
- All three leading Republican candidates hold leads over President Biden in general election matchups, according to a CBS News/YouGov poll released on the eve of Monday’s vote.
- Trump holds the smallest margin of victory, leading Biden 50% to 48%. DeSantis holds a similar 3-point lead, 51% to 48%, while Haley leads Biden by 8 points, 53% to 45%.
- The New York Times broke down how each of the three leading campaigns are thinking about turnout in icy Iowa. In short: “No one really knows what to expect on Monday night when Iowans become the first to weigh in on the 2024 presidential election. An already unpredictable and quirky process is even more so this year, thanks to dangerously cold weather and an unusually uncompetitive contest.”
- Politico reported that while some DeSantis backers “insist the polls are wrong and argue the media has prematurely written DeSantis’ political obituary,” others acknowledge “it’ll be incredibly difficult to stage a startling upset and outright win Iowa.”
- CNN covered a new campaign dynamic that emerged on caucus eve: Trump went after Ramaswamy for the first time. Trump said Ramaswamy is “not MAGA” who pulls “deceitful campaign tricks.” “A vote for Vivek is a vote for the ‘other side’,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
- The Washington Examiner identified five key counties to watch on caucus night. The counties include: rural Buena Vista County, with its large Latino population; suburban Linn County, where Haley hopes to do well; populous Polk County, expected to be a DeSantis-Haley battleground; suburban Scott County, which went for Rubio in 2016; and Sioux County, a key evangelical stronghold where DeSantis hopes to win.
- “The Iowa caucuses that we know today can be traced back to the late 1960s and early 1970s,“ Fox News observed, and recalls some of the upsets from caucuses past, including Jimmy Carter’s dark horse victory and Barack Obama’s upset victory over Hillary Clinton in 2008.
- “In contrast to primary elections, in which voters simply head to the polls and cast a private ballot in a booth, Iowans gather across the state in local “caucuses” to select a nominee,” the New York Post reported. “At each caucus, speeches will be made on behalf of each of the major candidates before the vote is carried out by secret ballot, typically by writing a name on a blank piece of paper.”
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© Dominic Moore, 2023
