Trump Wins the New Hampshire Primary as Haley Vows to Fight On

Former President Donald Trump won the New Hampshire Republican primary on Tuesday by a solid 11-point margin over former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, who vowed to continue her campaign despite her defeat.

Summary

Former President Donald Trump won the New Hampshire Republican primary on Tuesday by a solid 11-point margin over former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, who vowed to continue her campaign despite her defeat.

• With 95% of votes counted, Trump leads Haley by around 35,000 votes, or a 54% to 43% margin. While undoubtedly a solid win, the margin was narrower than polls had suggested. 
• Trump is now the first non-incumbent Republican to win both the Iowa and New Hampshire contests. His victories in both elections have all-but-guaranteed his path to a third consecutive Republican presidential nomination.
• However, the substantial portion of the electorate that defected from Trump, the de facto incumbent, to Haley is an indication that Trump has work to do with moderate Republicans and independents if he wants to win a second term in November.
• “New Hampshire is first in the nation, not last in the nation.This race is far from over,” Haley told a crowd of her supporters after the results were announced. She said she plans to compete in next month’s South Carolina primary.
• Trump appeared visibly angry at Haley’s refusal to quit the race and delivered a vitriolic victory speech to a crowd of his supporters. “Who the hell was the imposter who went up on the stage before, and like, claimed a victory?” Trump asked. He added, “I don’t get too angry. I get even.”
• “Two states have now voted in the presidential race, and Donald Trump barely received half of the vote — not exactly a ringing endorsement for a former president demanding a coronation,” said a Haley campaign official after Trump’s remarks.
• The official added, “His angry rant was filled with grievances and offered the American people nothing about his vision for our country’s future. This is why so many voters want to move on from Trump’s chaos and are rallying to Nikki Haley’s new generation of conservative leadership.”
• On the Democratic side of the aisle, President Joe Biden easily fended off a challenge from Rep. Dean Phillips by a 50-point margin despite having to mount a write-in campaign. As of publication, the total number of write-ins accounted for 72% of the Democratic vote, with Phillips trailing far behind at around 20% and Marianne Williamson in third with 4.6%. 
• “It is now clear that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee. And my message to the country is the stakes could not be higher,” said President Biden in a statement after the race was called for Trump. “Our Democracy. Our personal freedoms — from the right to choose to the right to vote. Our economy — which has seen the strongest recovery in the world since COVID. All are at stake.”

• Haley faces “long odds” in her home state of South Carolina, according to a report from the Washington Post’s Josh Dawsey and Hannah Knowles. They observed that “Leading South Carolina Republicans have largely lined up behind Trump in the state Haley once led for six years,” and the decision by the establishment to close ranks behind Trump will make pulling off an upset difficult despite her history in the Palmetto State.
• CNN’s Eric Bradner had one unmistakable takeaway from Trump’s victory speech: he “wants Haley out – now.” Instead of celebrating his win, Trump “instead sounded annoyed that Haley had not yet dropped out.” Trump derided the woman he appointed to his Cabinet as an “imposter” who performed “very poorly” in contrast to his remarks after Iowa calling his opponents “very smart people, very capable people.”
• The New York Times’ Nate Cohn had one question after Tuesday’s results – “It’s fair to ask: is the Republican race over?” Cohn wrote “the answer is probably ‘yes’” if one defines “over” as “whether Mr. Trump is now on track to win without a serious contest” after beating Haley in a state that was her “very best opportunity to change the trajectory of the race.”

• National Review’s Jim Geraghty wrote Tuesday’s results have left Haley “at a crossroads.” While the unlikelihood of a Haley victory is clear, Geraghty assessed some reasons for her to stay in, notably: “because the rest of the country’s Republicans deserve a choice too.” Geraghty pointed out that about 45-49% of GOP voters in Iowa and New Hampshire rejected Trump, a minority to be sure but a large one who deserve to have their voices heard, too.
• Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser argued Haley “lives to fight another day” but will face a “challenging road ahead” should she stay in the race. A source close to Haley pointed out to Fox News that after Tuesday there are “now two states where Trump got barely half the vote. That’s incredibly weak for an incumbent.”
• The New York Post’s Michael Goodwin made the case that the New Hampshire primary results demonstrated the “durability” of “Teflon Don.” Goodwin wrote that after the first two states, “it appears to me more likely that Trump would have won no matter who challenged him, how much money they raised or how well they ran their campaigns.”

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© Dominic Moore, 2023