An unexpected candidacy in a state thought to be safe for Democrats and a key endorsement from former President Donald Trump in a battleground state on Friday both help boost the odds that Republicans will retake the U.S. Senate after the 2024 elections.
Summary
An unexpected candidacy in a state thought to be safe for Democrats and a key endorsement from former President Donald Trump in a battleground state on Friday both help boost the odds that Republicans will retake the U.S. Senate after the 2024 elections.
- In Maryland, centrist former Gov. Larry Hogan announced a surprise campaign for the Senate seat left open by retiring Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD). The Senate race in deep-blue Maryland was thought to be safe for Democrats.
- Hogan’s entry into the race immediately moves the Maryland race into competitive territory and will likely force Democrats to divert campaign money to the Old Line State to make sure Democrats hold on to this key Senate seat.
- Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks is one of the two leading Democratic candidates along with Rep. David Trone, the founder of Total Wine & More. Trone is self-funding his bid and has already spent millions to blanket the airwaves with ads in support of his candidacy.
- In the Montana Senate Republican primary, former President Trump threw his backing behind Tim Sheehy, a veteran, businessman, and first-time candidate over Rep. Matt Rosendale. Sheehy and Rosendale are competing for the GOP nomination to challenge Sen. Jon Tester.
- Tester, a Democrat, is considered one of the most vulnerable Senate Democrats seeking reelection in 2024. National Republicans prefer Sheehy because Rosendale already blew a shot to take down Tester – Rosendale lost to the Democrat by 4 points in 2018.
- Trump’s endorsement of Sheehy on the day Rosendale entered the race was not the only piece of bad news that accompanied Rosendale’s campaign launch. Speaker Mike Johnson backtracked on plans to back Rosendale after intense blowback from other top Republicans.
- “Mr. Trump backed Mr. Rosendale in that first race against Mr. Tester, in 2018, and held a rally in Montana alongside him less than a month before the election,” the New York Times noted. “But Mr. Rosendale’s loss — and his failure to endorse Mr. Trump’s latest presidential bid sooner — convinced the former president to endorse Mr. Sheehy. (Mr. Rosendale endorsed Mr. Trump in December.) That endorsement may ease Mr. Sheehy’s path to the nomination and stave off the chaotic primary that others in the party worry could be costly.”
- “A popular former governor known for his moderate record, what Hogan is perhaps even better known for is his eagerness to criticize fellow Republican Donald Trump while in office and during his current presidential run,” CNN observed. “Hogan’s entry potentially upends not just the Maryland race, but the entire battle for control of the Senate, with Democrats holding a one-seat advantage and incumbents already on defense in several Republican-leaning states in addition to open races.”
- “Democratic operatives were quick to point out that Hogan has never run in a presidential year nor had to explain to Maryland voters how he would act on federal legislation,” the Washington Post wrote. On abortion, for example, he has described himself as an antiabortion Catholic but that rights to the procedure were a matter of settled law in Maryland. On gun control, he backed a red-flag law and a ban on the sales of bump stocks, but also had high ratings from the National Rifle Association. Democrats were quick to criticize Hogan’s candidacy as an opportunity for Republicans to seize more power in Washington.
- “Support from Washington Republicans cuts both ways,” National Review observed. “While Sheehy will certainly benefit from the millions in spending that a number of outside groups — including the NRSC and the Mitch McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund — will contribute in the state on his behalf, Rosendale allies argue that support from Washington Republican is viewed as circumspect by base GOP voters.”
- The New York Post pointed out that “Trump refrained from attacking Rosendale in his endorsement of Sheehy, explaining that while he has “respect” for the congressman, he feels Sheehy is “best-positioned” to beat the incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.).”
- “Both McConnell and Daines talked to Hogan in recent weeks, a person familiar with their conversations said,” according to the Wall Street Journal. “The political environment has shifted, both because of the divisive Democratic primary and a lack of enthusiasm among Democratic voters this cycle, the person said. Multiple private polls conducted by Republicans showed Hogan with leads over the Democratic contenders, said another person familiar with the recruitment effort.”
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© Dominic Moore, 2023
